Just eight weeks in the past when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if his performances were an indicator or the reason of the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. After Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains a particularly tough proposition to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.
According to Opta, in only two games has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side which has just won 10 in a row, Villa appear curiously susceptible – yet right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter in the near future. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
